Market & Portfolio Update - November 2025

After very strong gains through the year, the global share market (represented by the MSCI World Gross Index) took a breather in November, returning 0.1% in NZ dollar terms. Although the longest US government shutdown, lasting 43 days, ended in the middle of the month, market uncertainty regarding the ambiguous data environment, the impact on growth and the progress of monetary policy weighed on investors. 

The third-quarter earnings season concluded in November and confirmed the strong earnings trend from the previous quarter. In the US, 81% of companies in the S&P 500 (an index of the 500 largest publicly traded US companies) beat consensus earnings.  

Excellent quarterly results from the world’s largest publicly listed company, Nvidia, failed to allay concerns about high valuations and fears of overly optimistic profit expectations surrounding the artificial intelligence ecosystem. 

The OCR was cut to 2.25% as expected by the market; however investors were surprised by the RBNZ’s OCR trajectory, which implied a low probability of a further rate cut. 

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