Market & Portfolio Update - November 2021
News of the new Omicron variant broke late in the month, resulting in modest volatility in global share markets. Markets don’t tend to like uncertainty, and it is still early in terms of understanding the Omicron variant. Much more data is required, but initial suggestions are that it is more transmissible but potentially less severe than the Delta variant. Vaccine makers are also optimistic that existing vaccines will provide some protection, and Omicron specific vaccines can be developed reasonably quickly if required.
For New Zealand based investors, the volatility global share markets experienced was offset by the NZ dollar falling. The NZ dollar depreciated against most major currencies, supporting the returns of unhedged overseas assets (assets that are free to move with exchange rates). The result was a positive 3.2% return for unhedged overseas investments.
Fixed interest portfolios provided the diversification we expect during a period of equity market volatility. Both Global and New Zealand fixed interest portfolios returned almost 1%.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank hiked the Official Cash Rate 0.25% as expected – taking the rate to 0.75%. Their updated forecasts now show the OCR reaching 2.5% by mid-2023.
A look back at when the world feared the worst
On August 2, 1990, the world woke up to a grim headline: “Iraq Invades Kuwait; Oil Prices Soar, Markets Plunge.”
Saddam Hussein's forces had crossed into Kuwait, triggering fears of a prolonged conflict in the oil-rich Middle East.
The immediate market reaction was swift and severe.
Lifetime Book Club: The Let Them Theory
In a world where we spend so much energy trying to control outcomes, manage other people’s opinions, and keep everything on track, this book offers a different approach. One that suggests peace comes not from controlling more, but from letting go.