Market & Portfolio Update - July 2024

The Global shares market had a positive month in July, gaining +4% in New Zealand dollar terms. In the US, over half of companies in the S&P500 index have released their latest earnings report, with over two-thirds beating analysts’ expectations. Ten of the eleven sectors in the US finished higher, with Technology being the only sector finishing the month lower.

US inflation crept below 3% for the first time since June 2023, breaking through the 3-4% range it has been hovering in for the last twelve months. Falling inflation and signs of rising unemployment have heightened investor expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.

New Zealand’s share market had a strong month, up 5.8% in July. Many companies that are sensitive to interest rates had a strong month after the Reserve Bank of NewZealand hinted at potential rate cuts before the end of the year. While the Official Cash Rate was held at 5.50% in July, the Reserve Bank acknowledged monetary policy had significantly reduced inflation and expected it to return to within the 1-3% target range in the coming months. This was a significant change in tone and shifted many investors’ expectations of rate cuts as the Reserve Bank had considered hiking rates back in May.