Market Commentary 1 April - 30 June 2023
We are pleased to note that 2023 continues to show solid gains, this is a notable reversal from the tough 2022 year, which affirms the benefit of focusing on the longer term and not getting too caught up in negative headlines when markets are down.
Pleasingly, we have started to see inflation slowing, though this is not surprising given the hikes in interest rates over the last two years. Central banks are now taking more of a mixed approach in assessing how much future increases to rates might be necessary – or whether we are now more likely to be ‘there’ already. Overall, the picture suggests we are nearing the end of the global hiking cycle, which means a more positive outlook for fixed interest returns with the benefit of today’s higher income yields.
Previously, we mentioned the forward-looking nature of markets and how they perform during recessions. For example, the main share market index in the US (the S&P 500) has actually increased by 1% during all recession periods since 1945. In part, that’s because share markets usually peak before the start of a recession and bottom out before their conclusion. In other words, the worst is generally over for shares before it’s over for the rest of the economy.
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