Market & Portfolio Update - November 2023
Global share markets had a strong month, up 8% in local currency terms in November. A combination of factors such as declining long-term bond rates, a lower-than-expected US inflation report, and resilient company earnings, particularly in the Information Technology sector, contributed to this performance.
Global bond markets gained 4% - their best monthly performance since 2008. This was driven by the US Treasury signalling less government borrowing in the short-term than expected by markets and downside surprises to economic data, which led investors to lower their interest rate expectations. Two of the most important data sets closely tracked by investors were the US employment and US inflation reports. The employment data showed a higher unemployment rate and fewer jobs added than expected, and this was followed by a lower-than-expected inflation report.
New Zealand followed international markets higher, with the NZX50 up over 5% in November. The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 5.5%. However, they suggested that interest rates may still go higher or stay higher for longer than expected. They pointed toward several upside risks to inflation, including elevated net migration.
Market & Portfolio Update - November 2025
After very strong gains through the year, the global share market (represented by the MSCI World Gross Index) took a breather in November, returning 0.1% in NZ dollar terms. Although the longest US government shutdown, lasting 43 days, ended in the middle of the month, market uncertainty regarding the ambiguous data environment, the impact on growth and the progress of monetary policy weighed on investors.
Lifetime Book Club: Stolen Focus by Johann Hari
"The truth is, we are not losing our ability to focus because we are lazy or undisciplined. We are losing it because our attention has been stolen."
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