Market & Portfolio Update - July 2025

The global share market (represented by the MSCI World Gross Index) was up +4.2% in NZ dollar terms in July as the Trump administration finalised several trade agreements, including with Vietnam, Japan and the EU. Although these new tariff rates are significantly higher than the average rate before Trump’s presidency, equity markets responded positively to the fact that the new agreements reduce the risk of an escalating trade war.

US June inflation showed an annual increase of 2.7%, which was slightly better than expected. There are early signs that tariff effects are putting upward pressure on inflation, but it remains limited so far. It’s believed the rate that companies are paying has so far been lower than the statutory tariff rate, due to inventory management and supply chain reorganisation. This means the timeline for clarity on the effects of tariffs on the economy may be pushed back a bit.

The NZX50 (index of the 50 largest listed companies in New Zealand) returned +1.8% in July. Some of this performance was aided by a strong month from the real estate sector, which is likely to be benefiting from New Zealand’s current interest rate cutting cycle.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the Official Cash Rate at 3.25% in July, as widely expected by the market. The RBNZ noted they wanted more clarity on economic momentum and the global outlook.

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