Market & Portfolio Update - February 2023
After a strong rally to start the year, global share markets gave back some of their gains in February. Surprisingly strong economic data led investors to expect higher interest rates which weighed on equity valuations. The strength of the US labour market was particularly surprising, as the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4%.
The strong economic data and higher interest rate outlook saw the USD appreciate 4% against the NZD. This more than offset the decline in global share markets for New Zealand based investors.
As was widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the OCR by 0.5% to 4.75%, marking the 10th consecutive increase in New Zealand’s benchmark interest rate. Current market expectations are for the OCR to peak at around 5.5% by mid-2023.
February was a busy month for New Zealand listed companies. Overall results were mixed, with some companies’ results disappointing and others beating expectations. Auckland International Airport’s results were particularly well received, with revenue up 130% since last year, fuelled by a robust recovery in international tourism.
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The global share market (represented by the MSCI World Gross Index) returned +1.4% in New Zealand dollar terms, despite many listed software companies facing pressure during the month. Investors are questioning how durable some software companies’ competitive advantages really are, as developments in artificial intelligence (AI) may make it easier to replicate their software. Nonetheless, the broader market tone was more resilient as investors continued to favour industries related to AI infrastructure.
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