Market & Portfolio Update - April 2024
After a strong start to 2024, global share markets cooled off in April as investors weighed up future expectations on the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Despite this modest pull-back, global share markets are up 7% year to date.
Global bond markets also eased in April, as US inflation data came in slightly higher than expected. At 3.5%, the US inflation rate is significantly lower than its peak of 9.1% in 2022 but remains above the US central bank’s 2% target. As a result, investors tempered their expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year.
Turning attention back home to New Zealand, the economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3% and GDP growth at near zero levels. Despite persistent sticky inflation, the slowing economy should ease the inflationary pressures and allow the Reserve Bank to consider cutting interest rates eventually.
Positively, New Zealand also achieved its first trading surplus since May last year. A strong rebound in kiwifruit and apple exports after Cyclone Gabrielle’s devastation last year was the lead driver for New Zealand’s 12% surge in exports.
A look back at when the world feared the worst
On August 2, 1990, the world woke up to a grim headline: “Iraq Invades Kuwait; Oil Prices Soar, Markets Plunge.”
Saddam Hussein's forces had crossed into Kuwait, triggering fears of a prolonged conflict in the oil-rich Middle East.
The immediate market reaction was swift and severe.
Lifetime Book Club: The Let Them Theory
In a world where we spend so much energy trying to control outcomes, manage other people’s opinions, and keep everything on track, this book offers a different approach. One that suggests peace comes not from controlling more, but from letting go.