Market & Portfolio Update - April 2024

After a strong start to 2024, global share markets cooled off in April as investors weighed up future expectations on the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Despite this modest pull-back, global share markets are up 7% year to date.

Global bond markets also eased in April, as US inflation data came in slightly higher than expected. At 3.5%, the US inflation rate is significantly lower than its peak of 9.1% in 2022 but remains above the US central bank’s 2% target. As a result, investors tempered their expectations for interest rate cuts later in the year.

Turning attention back home to New Zealand, the economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3% and GDP growth at near zero levels. Despite persistent sticky inflation, the slowing economy should ease the inflationary pressures and allow the Reserve Bank to consider cutting interest rates eventually.

Positively, New Zealand also achieved its first trading surplus since May last year. A strong rebound in kiwifruit and apple exports after Cyclone Gabrielle’s devastation last year was the lead driver for New Zealand’s 12% surge in exports.