Market & Portfolio Update - April 2022
Global share markets continued their choppy start to 2022 during April. For New Zealand-based investors, a fall in the NZ dollar played an important role in helping offset the volatility global share markets experienced. The NZ dollar fell against most major currencies supporting the returns of unhedged overseas assets (assets that are free to move with exchange rates). As a result, ‘unhedged’ overseas investments fell by only 1.8% for NZ based investors.
The latest data shows New Zealand’s annual inflation rate reached 6.9% in March – up from 5.9% in December. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded by raising the Official Cash Rate 0.5%. The OCR now sits at 1.5%, and is expected to continue to rise. However, it's important to note that market expectations have already adjusted so that a rise to 3.5% by the end of the year is already baked into asset prices. This means the actual impact from here of future increases at this rate should reflect their not being a ’surprise’ for investment markets.
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The global share market (represented by the MSCI World Gross Index) returned +1.4% in New Zealand dollar terms, despite many listed software companies facing pressure during the month. Investors are questioning how durable some software companies’ competitive advantages really are, as developments in artificial intelligence (AI) may make it easier to replicate their software. Nonetheless, the broader market tone was more resilient as investors continued to favour industries related to AI infrastructure.
Lifetime Book Club: The Almanack of Naval Ravikant by Eric Jorgenson
In a world that often confuses busyness with success and income with wealth, this book offers a different perspective. One that suggests true wealth is freedom. Freedom over your time. Freedom over your decisions. Freedom to live life on your own terms.